Big fat list of Mental Models

Jul 5, 2020

Cognitive psychology in 💭 phil

This is a collection of mental models I've read about. Makes for a good reference for the times I'm always stuck in Déjà vu, thinking "what's the term?". I will grow, evolve and categorize this list largely trying to understand / answer "what can I do to minimize negative externalities?", a meta-mental model for decision making in life.

This is a fat list and the purpose is not to memorize these. Instead, consciously aiming to learn them, utilize them as much as possible to fit things happening around into a model. This is reductive and simplifying, but that is precisely what models are for - to allow us focus on things that matter without the unnecessary details.

We don’t become better at things we do – we become better at things we pay attention to while we’re doing them

Uncategorized List

Inverse Thinking - be wrong less
- unforced errors
- antifragile - gain from disorder
Arguing from first principles
Minimum Viable Product
- de-risking - weed out untrue assumptions
- premature optimization
Occam's razor - as simple as it can be, but no simpler
- conjunction fallacy - latching on to unnecessary assumptions
- overfitting
Frame of Reference
- framing
- nudging
- anchoring
Availability Bias
- filter bubble
- echo chambers
The Third Story
- most respectful interpretation - benefit of the doubt
- Hanlon's razor - malice vs carelessness
- fundamental attribution error
- self-serving bias
- veil of ignorance
Birth lottery
- just world hypothesis
- victim-blame
- learned helplessness
Paradigm Shift
- Semmelweis reflex
- confirmation bias
- backfire effect
- disconfirmation bias
- cognitive dissonance
- thinking gray
- Devil's advocate position
Intuition
- proximate cause
- root cause
- optimistic probability bias
Tyranny of small decisions - "death by a thousand cuts"
- tragedy of the commons
- public goods
- herd immunity
Externalities (internalizing negative externalities)
- spillover effects
- Coase theorem - "property rights, rational actors, low transaction costs"
- cap-and-trade
Asymmetric information
- Moral Hazard
- Principal-agent problem
- adverse selection
Market failure
- government / political failure
Goodhart's law
- perverse incentives
- cobra effect
- Sreisand effect
- hydra effect
Observer effect
- chilling effect
- collateral damage
- blowback
Boiling frog
- short-termism
- technical debt
- path dependence
Preserving optionality
- precautionary principle
Hick's law
- Information overload
- analysis paralysis
- perfect is the enemy of good
- reversible / irreversible decisions
- paradox of choice
- decision fatigue
Murphy's law
North star
Compound interest
Two-front wars
- Multitasking
- deep work
- Eisenhower Decision Matrix
- Sayre's Law
  - Parkinson's law of triviality
  - bike-shedding
Opportunity cost
- opportunity cost of capital
- best alternative to negotiated agreement
Leverage
- Pareto principle
- power law distribution
Learning curve effect
Law of diminishing returns
- Law of diminishing utility
- negative returns
- burnout
Present bias
- net present value
- hyperbolic discounting
Default effect - path of least resistance
Parkinson's Law
Hofstadter's Law
Loss aversion
- sunk-cost fallacy
Design pattern
- anti-pattern
- brute force
- heuristic
- black boxes
- parallel processing
- divide and conquer
Economies of scale
Reframe the problem
Natural selection
Scientific method
Inertia
- strategy tax
- Shirky principle
- Lindy effect
Momentum
- catalyst
- forcing function
- activation energy
- flywheel
Homeostasis
- Chatelier's principle
Hysteresis
Critical mass
- tipping point
- chain reaction
Technology adoption lifecycle - innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, laggards
Metcalfe's law
- network effects
Butterfly effect
- luck surface area
- entropy
Black-and-white fallacy
- in-group favoritism
- out-group bias
- zero-sum
- win-win
Grass-is-greener mentality
Maslow's hammer
Cost-benefit analysis
- Sensitivity analysis
Garbage in, garbage out
Utilitarianism
Black swan events
Systems thinking
Unknown unknowns
Counterfactual thinking
Lateral thinking
Groupthink
- Bandwagon effect
Divergent thinking
- Convergent thinking
Crowdsourcing
Game theory
- arms Race
- prisoner's dilemma
- Nash equilibrium
- influence models
  - reciprocity
  - commitment
  - liking
  - social proof
  - scarcity
  - authority
Social norms vs market norms
Ultimatum game
- distributive / procedural justice
- fair share / share
- appeal to emotion
FUD - fear, uncertainty, doubt
straw man
- ad hominem
Trojan horse
- bait and switch
- Potemkin village
Mutually assured destruction
- deterrence
  - carrot-and-stick
- containment
  - flypaper theory
Domino effect
- slippery slope argument
- broken windows theory
- gateway drug theory
Loss leader strategy
- appeasement
Red line
- nuclear option
- zero-tolerance policy
- call your bluff
- war of attrition
- guerrilla warfare
  - punching above your weight
- generals always fight the last war - default to strategies in the past
Endgame
- exit strategy
- Hail Mary pass
- burn the boats
Joy's law
- 10x team
- introverts / extroverts
- generalists / specialists
- commandos / infantry / police
- foxes / hedgehogs
Peter principle
- Managing to the person
- strategy vs tactics
- institutional knowledge
- unicorn candidate
- directly responsible individual
- bystander effect
- power vacuum
Deliberate practice
- spacing effect
Challenge directory - care personally
- radical candor
- ruinous empathy
- manipulative insincerity
- obnoxious aggression
Consequence-conviction matrix
Fixed vs growth mindset
- Pygmalion effect
- golem effect
- impostor syndrome
- Dunning-Kruger effect
Maslow's hierarchy of needs
Hindsight bias
Winning hearts and minds
Culture
- high-context / low-context
- tight / loose
- heirachical / egalitarian
- collectivist / individualist
- objective / subjective
- loyalists / mercenaries
Manager's vs Maker's schedule
Dunbar's number
Boots on the ground
Mythical man-month
Market power
- arbitrage
- sustainable competitive advantage
- first-mover advantage / disadvantage
- product/market fit
- (open) Secret
- resonance
Consensus-contrarian matrix
Homebrew computer club
Why now? Now what?
- simultaneous invention
Observe / orient / decide / act
- pivot
What type of customer are you hunting?
- personas
- bright spot
- beachhead
Idea maze
Heat-seeking missiles
Moat
- lock-in
- switching costs
- barriers to entry / exit
- regulatory capture
Winner-takes-most markets
Crossing the chasm
Cargo cult
Circle of competence
Overview effect